Fichier:Opinion polling for the next Romanian legislative election.svg

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Description

English: Opinion polling for the upcoming 2024 Romanian legislative election using local regressions (LOESS)
Code template: https://gitlab.com/gbuvn1/opinion-polling-graph

ggplot.R

Sys.setlocale("LC_TIME", "English")
library(ggplot2)
library(anytime)
library(tidyverse)
library(svglite)

polls <- read.table("CAT.csv", header=T, sep=",", fileEncoding="UTF-8", stringsAsFactor=F)
polls$polldate <- as.Date(anydate(polls$polldate))

spansize <- 0.6       # general smoothing parameter for trend line
startdate <- '2020-12-06'   # date of previous election
enddate <- '2025-03-21'     # (latest) date of next election

# retrieve party names from CSV
party1 <- colnames(polls)[2]
party2 <- colnames(polls)[3]
party3 <- colnames(polls)[4]
party4 <- colnames(polls)[5]
party5 <- colnames(polls)[6]
party6 <- colnames(polls)[7]
party7 <- colnames(polls)[8]
party8 <- colnames(polls)[9]
party9 <- colnames(polls)[10]
party10 <- colnames(polls)[11]
party11 <- colnames(polls)[12]
party12 <- colnames(polls)[13]

# define party colors (taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Germany_political_party_colour_templates)
col1 <- '#ED2128'
col2 <- '#FFDD00'
col3 <- '#00A6FF'
col4 <- '#FCC224'
col5 <- '#296633'
col6 <- '#A7CF35'
col7 <- '#1572BA'
col8 <- '#005487'
col9 <- '#66CCFF'
col10 <- '#00753A'
col11 <- '#08099F'
col12 <- '#08510A'

transp <-'55'       # transparency level of points

graph <- ggplot(polls)+
  geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date(startdate), color='#aaaaaabb')+       # vertical line (last election)
  geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date(enddate), color='#aaaaaabb')+         # vertical line (next election)
  geom_segment(aes(x=as.Date(startdate), xend=as.Date(enddate), y=5, yend=5), color='#666666bb', linetype='dashed')+      # horizontal line (election threshold 5%)
  # add poll points
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party1),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col1,transp),fill=paste0(col1,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party2),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col2,transp),fill=paste0(col2,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party3),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col3,transp),fill=paste0(col3,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party4),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col4,transp),fill=paste0(col4,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party5),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col5,transp),fill=paste0(col5,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party6),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col6,transp),fill=paste0(col6,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party7),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col7,transp),fill=paste0(col7,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party8),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col8,transp),fill=paste0(col8,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party9),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col9,transp),fill=paste0(col9,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party10),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col10,transp),fill=paste0(col10,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party11),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col11,transp),fill=paste0(col11,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party12),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col12,transp),fill=paste0(col12,transp))+
  # add trend lines
  # the "span" (smoothing parameter) should be manually changed for individual parties that have less polling data
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party1,color=shQuote('col1')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party2,color=shQuote('col2')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party3,color=shQuote('col3')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party4,color=shQuote('col4')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party5,color=shQuote('col5')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party6,color=shQuote('col6')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party7,color=shQuote('col7')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party8,color=shQuote('col8')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party9,color=shQuote('col9')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party10,color=shQuote('col10')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party11,color=shQuote('col11')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party12,color=shQuote('col12')),span=spansize,se=FALSE)+
  scale_y_continuous(labels = function(x) paste0(x, "%"),limits=c(0,45))+    # add %, manual limits on y-axis
  scale_x_date(limits = as.Date(c(startdate,enddate)), date_minor_breaks = "1 months", date_breaks = "3 months", date_labels = "%b %Y")+    # grid: 1 month, labels: 3 months
  labs(x = "", y = "")+
  scale_color_manual(name="",
                     breaks = c('col1','col2','col3','col4','col5','col6','col7','col8','col9','col10','col11','col12'),
                     labels = c(party1,party2,party3,party4,party5,party6,party7,party8,party9,party10,party11,party12),
                     values = c('col1'=col1,'col2'=col2,'col3'=col3,'col4'=col4,'col5'=col5,'col6'=col6,'col7'=col7,'col8'=col8,'col9'=col9,'col10'=col10,'col11'=col11,'col12'=col12))+
  # legend appearance
  theme(
    axis.text.x = element_text(size = 11),
    axis.text.y = element_text(size = 12),
    axis.title.y = element_text(size = 16),
    legend.position="right",
    legend.key.width=unit(24, "pt"),
    legend.key.height=unit(24, "pt"),
    legend.text = element_text(size=16, margin = margin(b = 5, t = 5, unit = "pt")))

graph + theme()

ggsave(file="polls.svg", plot=graph, width=18, height=10)

# workaround since svglite doesn't properly work in Wikipedia
aaa=readLines("polls.svg",-1)
bbb <- gsub(".svglite ", "", aaa)
writeLines(bbb,"polls.svg")

CAT.csv

polldate,PSD,PNL,USR,AUR,UDMR,PMP,PRO,ALDE,PPU,PER,APP,FD
2020-12-06,28.90,25.18,15.37,9.08,5.74,4.82,4.09,,1.12,1.12,,
2020-12-06,29.32,25.58,15.86,9.17,5.89,4.93,4.13,,1.33,1.33,,
2021-11-24,40,17,11,15,5,4,1,1,4,,,
2021-11-22,38,18,11,14,5,4,3,1,3,,,
2021-10-30,39,19,11,12,5,5,3,,4,,,
2021-10-26,40,17,13,14,5,4,2,1,4,,,
2021-10-25,35.5,21.9,12.4,14.2,5,2.9,3.2,,0.5,,1.7,
2021-10-21,34.5,16,15,17,5,4.5,1,,2,1,4,
2021-10-20,39,21,11,13,5,,,,,,,
2021-10-17,36.7,19.8,16.4,15.3,3,2.1,3,,,,,
2021-10-15,32,20,13,21,6,,,,,,,
2021-09-29,28,17,18,17.5,5,5.5,4,1,,,3,
2021-09-28,31.6,25.9,15,17,4.6,2.5,2.3,,,,1.2,
2021-09-27,35.4,21.9,9.8,17.1,,2.9,4.4,,,,,
2021-09-21,37,20,13,14,5,4,1,1,4,,,
2021-09-10,36,19,11,14,5,5,3,2,4,,,
2021-09-05,35,20,11,12,5,5,3,3,4,,,
2021-08-24,35,21,14,15,5,5,2,,1,,,
2021-08-20,34,20,12,11,5,5,3,3,4,,,
2021-08-19,35,27,14,14,5,2,2,1,,,,
2021-07-26,38.1,15.1,11.1,15,5.1,,,,,,,
2021-07-19,34,23,13,15,5,,,,,,,
2021-07-15,31,27,15,10,7,2,3,,,2,,
2021-06-24,22.9,25,15,18,5.1,,2,2.9,,,,
2021-06-18,34,22,14,12,4,5,2,3,2,,,
2021-06-15,30.2,26.6,13.2,14.2,,2.8,4.3,,,,,
2021-05-18,36,22,15,11,6,2,5,0,1,1,,
2021-05-18,36,28,11,14,3,,3,,,1,,
2021-05-08,36,23,14,15,5,2,2,,1,1,,
2021-05-07,22.1,23.5,13.6,15.5,8.6,4.6,4.1,,,,,
2021-04-17,33,21,16,12,4,5,3,,4,,,
2021-04-11,28.9,22.3,22.5,10,4,4.2,2.9,,,,,
2021-03-28,35,26,17,12,4,3,2,,,,,
2021-02-26,34,25,16,9,4,3,2,,3,,,
2021-02-14,33,25,20,8,4,4,4,2,,3,,
2021-02-11,28,27,14,16,6,4,1,,,,,
2021-01-17,34,24,16,14,5,3,1,,,,,
2021-01-15,34,26,16,12,5,3,2,,,,,
2020-12-21,35,26,14,15,4,2,2,,,,,
2020-12-20,35,26,15,14,5,2,1,,,,,
2021-11-13,35,8,12,20,5.5,4.5,1.5,0.5,1.5,0.5,4,5
2021-11-12,30.5,3,23,12,5,6.5,5.5,1,2.5,,2.5,7.5
2021-10-21,34,9,15,17,5,4,1,0.5,2,1,4,7
2021-10-17,30,3,17.5,17,4,6,5,1.5,,,3.5,11.5

Date

16 décembre 2021

Source

Travail personnel

Auteur

PLATEL

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